The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-Phase II models are evaluated in terms of their retrospective seasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, with a focus on TC frequency. The TC identification and tracking algorithm is modified to accommodate model data at daily resolution. It is also applied to three reanalysis products at the spatial and temporal resolution of the NMME-Phase II ensemble to allow for a more objective estimation of forecast skill. When used with the reanalysis data, the TC tracking generates realistic climatological distributions of the NA TC formation and tracks, and represents the interannual variability of the NA TC frequency quite well. Forecasts with the multi-model ensemble (MME) when initialized in April and later tend to have skill in predicting the NA seasonal TC counts (and TC days). At longer leads, the skill is low or marginal, although one of the models produces skillful forecasts when initialized as early as January and February. At short lead times, while demonstrating the highest skill levels the MME also tends to significantly outperform the individual models and attain skill comparable to the reanalysis. In addition, the short-lead MME forecasts are quite reliable. At regional scales, the skill is rather limited and mostly present in the western tropical NA and the Caribbean Sea. It is found that the overall MME forecast skill is limited by poor representation of the low-frequency variability in the predicted TC frequency, and large fluctuations in skill on decadal time scales. Addressing these deficiencies is thought to increase the value of the NMME ensemble in providing operational guidance

Risk of adenocarcinomas of the oesophagus and gastric cardia in patients hospitalized for asthma

In the first cohort study of the question we followed 92 986 (42 663 men and 50 323 women) adult patients hospitalized for asthma in Sweden from 1965 to 1994 for an average of 8.5 years to evaluate their risk of oesophageal and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) adjusted for gender, age and calendar year was used to estimate relative risk, using the Swedish nationwide cancer incidence rates as reference. Asthmatic patients overall had a moderately elevated risk for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (SIR = 1.5, 95% confidence interval CI, 0.9–2.5) and gastric cardia cancer (SIR = 1.4, 95% CI, 1.0–1.9). However, the excess risks were largely confined to asthmatic patients who also had a discharge record of gastro-oesophageal reflux (SIR = 7.5, 95% CI, 1.6–22.0 and SIR = 7.1, 95% CI, 3.1–14.0, respectively). No significant excess risk for oesophageal squamous-cell carcinoma or distal stomach cancer was observed. In conclusion, asthma is associated with a moderately elevated risk of developing oesophageal or gastric cardia adenocarcinoma. Special clinical vigilance vis-à-vis gastro-esophageal cancers seems unwarranted in asthmatic patients, but may be appropriate in those with clinically manifest gastro-oesophageal reflux.   http://www.bjcancer.com © 2001 Cancer Research Campaig

Whole Genome Characterization of the Mechanisms of Daptomycin Resistance in Clinical and Laboratory Derived Isolates of Staphylococcus aureus

Background: Daptomycin remains one of our last-line anti-staphylococcal agents. This study aims to characterize the genetic evolution to daptomycin resistance in S. aureus. Methods: Whole genome sequencing was performed on a unique collection of isogenic, clinical (21 strains) and laboratory (12 strains) derived strains that had been exposed to daptomycin and developed daptomycin-nonsusceptibility. Electron microscopy (EM) and lipid membrane studies were performed on selected isolates. Results: On average, six coding region mutations were observed across the genome in the clinical daptomycin exposed strains, whereas only two mutations on average were seen in the laboratory exposed pairs. All daptomycin-nonsusceptible strains had a mutation in a phospholipid biosynthesis gene. This included mutations in the previously described mprF gene, but also in other phospholipid biosynthesis genes, including cardiolipin synthase (cls2) and CDP-diacylglycerol-glycerol-3-phosphate 3-phosphatidyltransferase (pgsA). EM and lipid membrane composition analyses on two clinical pairs showed that the daptomycin-nonsusceptible strains had a thicker cell wall and an increase in membrane lysyl-phosphatidylglycerol. Conclusion: Point mutations in genes coding for membrane phospholipids are associated with the development of reduced susceptibility to daptomycin in S. aureus. Mutations in cls2 and pgsA appear to be new genetic mechanisms affecting daptomycin susceptibility in S. aureus

Reduced transcription of TCOF1 in adult cells of Treacher Collins syndrome patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Treacher Collins syndrome (TCS) is an autosomal dominant craniofacial disorder caused by frameshift deletions or duplications in the <it>TCOF1 </it>gene. These mutations cause premature termination codons, which are predicted to lead to mRNA degradation by nonsense mediated mRNA decay (NMD). Haploinsufficiency of the gene product (treacle) during embryonic development is the proposed molecular mechanism underlying TCS. However, it is still unknown if <it>TCOF1 </it>expression levels are decreased in post-embryonic human cells.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We have estimated <it>TCOF1 </it>transcript levels through real time PCR in mRNA obtained from leucocytes and mesenchymal cells of TCS patients (n = 23) and controls (n = 18). Mutational screening and analysis of NMD were performed by direct sequencing of gDNA and cDNA, respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All the 23 patients had typical clinical features of the syndrome and pathogenic mutations were detected in 19 of them. We demonstrated that the expression level of <it>TCOF1 </it>is 18-31% lower in patients than in controls (<it>p < 0.05</it>), even if we exclude the patients in whom we did not detect the pathogenic mutation. We also observed that the mutant allele is usually less abundant than the wild type one in mesenchymal cells.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This is the first study to report decreased expression levels of <it>TCOF1 </it>in TCS adult human cells, but it is still unknown if this finding is associated to any phenotype in adulthood. In addition, as we demonstrated that alleles harboring the pathogenic mutations have lower expression, we herein corroborate the current hypothesis of NMD of the mutant transcript as the explanation for diminished levels of <it>TCOF1 </it>expression. Further, considering that <it>TCOF1 </it>deficiency in adult cells could be associated to pathologic clinical findings, it will be important to verify if TCS patients have an impairment in adult stem cell properties, as this can reduce the efficiency of plastic surgery results during rehabilitation of these patients.</p